000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112228
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 9N82W  6N92W  8N105W  10N115W  8N130W  8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 120W TO 124W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE INTRUDES FROM CARIBBEAN INTO SE MEXICO THEN 
EXTENDS NE INTO TEXAS.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
AREA S OF 20N 85W-110W.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SWATH OF 
MOIST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NE FROM ITCZ W OF 115W WITH 75 KT JET 
CORE.  DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SE OF TROUGH ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG ITCZ FROM 115W-132W.  VERY DRY W OF TROUGH EXCEPT NEW AREA 
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING NW CORNER BROUGHT IN BY 
UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE AT 27N150W.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N122W 29N135W 
THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N139W.  HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA 
FORCING NW WINDS AGAINST CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MODERATE TO LARGE 
SWELLS MOVING S ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

$$
WALLY BARNES