000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 9N111W 7N119W 9N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N79W 
TO 6N83W TO 7N86W AND FROM 7N93W TO 7N98W TO 8N106W AND FROM 
9N112W TO 7N119W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 7N120W 9N127W AND 
9N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 120W. MAIN ENERGY IN 
THE TROUGH WAS OVER SRN CA WITH A MUCH WEAKER CENTER NEAR 
22N125W. MID LEVEL RIDGES WERE OVER NRN MEXICO AND ALONG 25N W 
OF 135W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE WAS ORIENTED 
W/E ALONG 26N AND WAS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 KT BETWEEN 15N 
AND 20N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE MOSTLY 15 KT 
ACCORDING TO SSMI AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 
06Z. GAP WINDS TO 20 KT WERE EVIDENT THROUGH PAPAGUAYO. SSMI 
SHOWED 15 KT THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 
20 KT WERE EVIDENT S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 125W.

LATER DAY 1 STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THE STRONG ENERGY 
CENTER TO 34N115W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK ALONG 
30N116W TO 15N128W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY 
EWD TO 100W WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKS IT'S WAY NE FROM 
25N140W TO THE MID CA COAST. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A CENTER 1023 MB NEAR 26N135W. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO NE TRADES BUT WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST MAY 
PICK UP A BIT TO 20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE TO GAP WINDS WITH HIGH 
PRES OVER THE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN PUMPING AIR SWD THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGUAYO AT SPEEDS TO 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SLY WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 5N E OF 90W AND S OF 7N BETWEEN 100W AND 
120W. 

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS WITH THE MAIN ENERGY 
CENTER MOVING ESE TO 30N109W WITH A DETACHED TROUGH HANGING BACK 
ALONG 25N120W TO 12N130W. A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEAR 25N150W 
WITH STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A 1022 
MB PACIFIC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS W TO 27N139W WHILE A WEAK COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES THE NRN BORDER ALONG 31N. LITTLE CHANGE TO NE 
TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WEAKEN SOME TO 10 TO 15 KT. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO GAP WINDS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 7N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. SW WINDS S OF 5N E OF 88W WILL CONTINUE 
WITH LOWER PRES OVER PANAMA CONTINUING. 

$$
RRG