000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 7N100W 9N110W 7N123W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 111W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
PERSISTENT ELONGATED AND RATHER AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING STRETCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL 
U.S. WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
RIDGE EXCEPT FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 100W-110W WHERE THERE IS SOME 
ENHANCED ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION. MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS 
FARTHER E OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-9N E 
OF 85W. IR IMAGES SHOW THIS CONVECTION DEEPENING AND EXPANDING 
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SW CARIB AND A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN 
WHICH IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDINESS. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO 
THE ATLANTIC TWD...MIATWDAT. AN INVERTED UPPER SHORTWAVE LIES 
ALONG 108W/109W PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER.  

GALE CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH 
PRES HAS SEEPED S AND WEAKENED IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. A 
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GAP WHICH SHOULD 
CONTINUE OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIP 
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT NE WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHICH SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

W OF 110W...
A LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD CENTERED NW 
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ENE 
FROM 29N140W TO 34N125W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FILTERING SWD ON 
THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE N OF 22N W OF 130W...BUT QUICKLY DRY OUT 
S OF THERE AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT. THIS CONFLUENT 
PATTERN IS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SW FROM A DEEP 
LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR MONTEREY CALIFORNIA ALONG 30N120W 
THROUGH 17N140W. A SWLY JET STREAM BRANCH...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 
IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE...ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 14N140W AND 
TURNS NE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AMPLE 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 360 NM SE OF THE 
JET. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS AND 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
OCCURRING S OF THE JET JUST W OF 140W. A WEAK UPPER HIGH CENTER 
IS NOTED NEAR 12N116W POSSIBLY AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N 
BETWEEN 111W-115W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N143W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 20N112W. TRADES NEAR 20 KT ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 
THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH PRES AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME.

$$
CANGIALOSI