000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N83W 7N93W 7N115W 13N137W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 6N89W TO 7N107W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 7N110W 7N112W 
11N112W 7N115W AND 9N138W.

CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 4N78W 
TO 8N79W. 

...DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 126W TONIGHT WITH A JET 
STREAK ON IT'S SE SIDE ALONG 30N120W TO 26N120W TO 18N130W. THE 
TROUGH IS BUTTING UP AGAINST A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED 
OVER SRN MEXICO BUT EXTENDING NW OVER THE SW CONUS. ANOTHER MID 
LEVEL RIDGE WAS W OF THE AREA BUT EXTENDED ESE TO 20N135W. ON 
THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK 1022 MB PACIFIC HIGH WAS NEAR 27N132W 
PRODUCING NE TRADES 15 TO 20 KT S OF 22N W OF 120W. ALL 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC 20 TO 25 KT 
THEREFORE GALE WARNINGS DROPPED AT 06Z. OTHER GAP WINDS ALONG 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST..PAPAGUAY0 AND FONSECA WITH OFFSHORE 
WINDS 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 90W AND 
110W S OF 6N AND S OF 5N FROM 115W TO 130W.

LATER DAY 1 LARGE UPPER TROUGH MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY AGAINST 
STRONG RIDGE OVER SW CONUS. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NW PORTION OF 
AREA STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 PACIFIC RIDGE 
REMAINS STATIONARY. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST NWLY 10 TO 15 KT. 
GAP WINDS ABOUT THE SAME AT 20 KT. SLY WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 
105W AND 115W S OF WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ. SW WINDS TO 20 
KT S OF 6N E OF 88W. 

FOR DAY 2 STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT DRIVING MID LEVEL TROUGH 
EWD TO 117W BUT TROUGH HANGING BACK TO 18N125W. RIDGE OVER 
MEXICO WEAKENING SOME. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 SOME SLIGHT 
STRENGHENING OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER 
NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 12N AND 22N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. GAP WINDS DECREASE SOME TO 
15 TO 20 KT AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ALSO DECREASE SOME AS GFS MODEL SHOWS 
LOW PRES ON THE ITCZ WEAKENING.  

$$
RRG