000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 8N90W 7N100W 8N110W 9N120W 
10N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 125W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 
NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
HIGHLY ELONGATED MID-UPPER RIDGING STRETCHES NW OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO FROM A HIGH CENTER ABOVE THE ERN COAST OF 
NICARAGUA. INDUCED TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO 
THE S OF THAT RIDGE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS WITH A WEAKENING 
SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 6N96W. THIS PATTERN IS ONLY ENHANCING VERY 
SMALL SHORT LIVED ISOLATED PATCHES OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
ITCZ. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH 
DEBRIS ACTIVITY SPILLING OVER THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COASTAL 
WATERS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA...EXCEPT N OF 13N W OF 102W WHERE BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND AN 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
UNFORTUNATELY...SCATTEROMETER PASSES DID NOT CATCH THAT GAP 
TODAY BUT SHIP DCAG2 REPORTED 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 12 FT AND 
THIS WAS OUTSIDE THE AREA OF EXPECTED MAX WINDS. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT NELY 
WINDS W OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-13N E OF 92W. THESE WINDS 
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HRS BUT DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.

W OF 110W...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS OFF THE S CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
COAST NEAR 35N127W. ITS ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM 30N127W TO 16N140W. 
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND 
ENHANCING ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 
126W-132W. OTHER AIDED ITCZ CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS W 
OF 136W. ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE IS EMBEDDED ALONG AND TO THE W OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS...EXCEPT FOR THE NW CORNER WHERE HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS IS FILTERING IN.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES AREA IS 
SITUATED NEAR 29N135W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 23N110W. A 
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 133W/134W FROM 7N-15N ALSO AIDING IN 
THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE.

$$
CANGIALOSI