000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 9N92W 7N102W 7N114W 10N130W
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 126W-131W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO TO A CREST N OF THE AREA OVER THE 
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 
7N94W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE AREA MUCH OF THE 
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN EDGE WHERE MID/UPPER CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOSTLY 
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ROTATING FROM THE E PACIFIC WATERS N 
AND NEWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
AREA...EXCEPT N OF 9N W OF 110W WHERE MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS NOTED. ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 96W-101W WHICH WAS EARLIER ENHANCED BY WEAK 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS NOW WEAKENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ALONG THE E COAST OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA ARE DUE TO A FRONTAL 
TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

GAP WIND OF GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW
GALE FORCE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1130 UTC THIS MORNING
SHOWED NE 20-25 KT WINDS W OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-13N E OF
91W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS BUT WITHIN A LESSER AREAL COVERAGE.

W OF 115W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N128W. ITS
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM 30N129W TO 20N134W TO 16N140W. DIFFLUENCE TO
THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING ENHANCE ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 124W-132W. OTHER AIDED ITCZ CONVECTION IS
S OF THE TROUGH AXIS W OF 136W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EXISTS 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SEEN SPILLING SWD INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA
BEHIND THE TROUGH. A RATHER STRONG JET STREAM BRANCH IS ADVECTING
AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA FROM 9N-16N W OF 121W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB 
NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH IS NEAR 30.5N138W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 
24N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N AND W OF 114W.
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED N OF 20N W OF 123W AND ALSO N OF 27N BETWEEN 115W-122W.

$$
AGUIRRE