000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 10N110W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 95W AND 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W... 
AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 132W AND 144W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CUT-OFF CYCLONE CONTINUES QUASI-STATIONARY N OF AREA 
NEAR 33N128W WITH A TROUGH SW THROUGH 20N135W...BECOMING NARROW 
TO A BASE AT 15N140W. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING SE 
AROUND THE CYCLONE NEAR 23N132W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE 
AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. TO THE SW OF THESE TROUGHS 
...AN UPPER RIDGE STILL PUSHES INTO THE SW CORNER FROM 10N TO 
15N W OF 130W WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM 
ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION...IS ALSO BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.  
   
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR N HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A CREST OVER ARIZONA 
NEAR 34N110W.  CONVECTION ALONG THE E PAC ITCZ IS ALSO ENHANCED 
ALONG 9N BETWEEN 79W AND 101W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
TRAPPED ROUGHLY FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 104W. THE UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL PAC APPEAR VERY DRY S OF 7N.     

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SE TO 25N118W...AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 
48 HOURS. THE GRADIENT S OF RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NE TO 
E WINDS IN 20 KT RANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. N WINDS ALONG W COAST 
BAJA PENINSULA ARE IN THE 15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT TO NEAR 20 KT 
NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SUPPORT MOSTLY 15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  

GAP WINDS...GALE WINDS IN AND JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 36 HOURS. NLY WINDS 20 KT IN 
THE GULF OF FONSECA AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA