000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N90W 6N103W 10N120W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
88W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
117W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS S/CENTRAL 
MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS HAVING BECOME ROTATED IN A 
SE-NW FASHION SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE AXIS NOW STRETCHES 
FROM BELIZE/GUATEMALA NW ACROSS MEXICO AND THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA TO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW 
REMAINS ENTRENCHED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT SOME OF THE FLOW 
HAS TURNED SOUTHEASTERLY W OF 95W DUE TO THE NEW ORIENTATION OF 
THE RIDGE. THUS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOW BEING ADVECTED NW 
PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST THEN TURNS NE ACROSS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND FAR NW MEXICO. THE ITCZ IS PERTURBED NWD E OF 100W 
AND IS SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE WHERE THE SOUTHERLIES ARE INTERACTING WITH THE FLOW 
OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO 
OCCURRING ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SRN NICARAGUA DUE TO 
THE ITCZ AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN.

A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT MINIMAL GALES ARE 
OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT 
OVER THE NEXT DAY...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 45 KT OVER 
TEHUANTEPEC. GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE GALES WILL CONTINUE 
FOR ANOTHER 42 HRS OR SO...POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW WARNING 
CRITERIA BY THU MORNING.

W OF 120W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS POSITIONED JUST W OF SAN 
FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S 
INTO THE AREA FROM 30N127W TO 15N124W. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY 
BEING REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO ITS BASE FROM 
30N136W TO 25N145W WITH A 75 KT JET STREAK. A BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN SEWD INTO THE REGION 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-134W. FARTHER S...THE AFOREMENTIONED 
TROUGH CONNECTS TO A SHEARED UPPER LOW NEAR 8N116W. DIVERGENCE 
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 117W-124W.

$$
BERG