000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061617 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 8N100W 9N110W 9N120W 9N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-90W... AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W-120W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING NW 15 KT IS ANCHORED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ALONG WESTERN MEXICO THEN N TO A RIDGE CREST N OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ALMOST ALL OF MEXICO...AND FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA E OF 114W... EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW JUST S OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 100W AND N OF 8N. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE BANKED ALONG THE N SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAIN RANGE AND MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE PARTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF THESE COUNTRIES AS WELL AS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL SLY FLOW IS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS NORTHERN BAJA AND THE SW UNITED STATES. AN ELONGATE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 10N114W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W-120W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1220 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT OVER A NARROW SWATH ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING S TO ABOUT 12N. GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THESE WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT BY WED MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE WINDS TO REACH STORM FORCE BETWEEN 24-48 HRS. THE GALE EVENT IS SCHEDULED TO LAST PERHAPS TO FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING. W OF 115W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N126W AND CONTINUES TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING E 15-20 KT NEAR 28N128W. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND IS ATTENDED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS ALONG 139W NEAR 22N. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW IS ELSEWHERE N OF 9N W OF 130W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR 32N140W WITH A RIDGE SE THROUGH 28N133W TO 24N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N AND W OF 115W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW ARE NOTED N OF 17N. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN JUST W OF THE AREA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM W OF 140W. $$ AGUIRRE