000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 6N95W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 80W AND 92W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N113W...AND WITH 30 
NM EITHER SIDE LINE 9N127W 9N132W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY N OF AREA NEAR 36N126W WITH 
A TROUGH SW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 28N132W WITH THE TROUGH 
CONTINUING SE ALONG 11N124W TO YET ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 
6N113W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH N OF 22N. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS 
ALONG 18N140W 13N137W. UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR 17N149W...IS OBSERVED UNDER THIS RIDGE. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM ENHANCED CONVECTION NEAR 11N116W SPREADS N IN A 
NARROW PLUME ALONG 16N120W TO NEAR 28N118W WHERE IT MERGES WITH 
ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 
17N130W TO 28N118W. THE COMBINED PLUME CONTINUES N TO BEYOND 
32N115W SPILLING E ACROSS THE CONUS DESERT SW EVAPORATING OVER 
TEXAS.   
   
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 17N83W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING W ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 20N105W TO A CREST ALONG 
20N120W 33N113W. 

A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE 
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. 
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED W OVER THE E PAC N OF 
5N E OF 92W. 

A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 12N110W AND IS 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS. GRADIENT S OF RIDGE 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS IN 20 KT RANGE THROUGH 48 
HOURS. N WINDS ALONG W COAST BAJA PENINSULA IN THE 15 KT 
RANGE...EXCEPT TO NEAR 20 KT NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
AND SUPPORT MOSTLY 15 KT.  

GAP WINDS...GALE WINDS IN AND JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 42 HOURS AND THEN BE 
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER NLY SURGE WITH NLY WINDS INCREASING TO 
MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN GALE BY 72 HOURS. NLY WINDS EXPECTED TO 20 KT IN THE GULF 
OF FONSECA AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
NELSON