000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N86W 6N98W 12N121W 9N131W 
11N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 78W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 114W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL 
MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E/W ALONG 19N...AND PRODUCING 
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 116W EXCEPT 
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP 
EASTERLY FLOW JUST S OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE 
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 100W. A 
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BANKED ALONG THE N SLOPES OF THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAIN RANGE AND SO MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS 
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE PARTS OF 
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. HOWEVER...A FEW 
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF THESE 
COUNTRIES AS WELL AS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO A NWD 
INFLECTION OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 80W-95W. FARTHER W...THE UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO 
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 8N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGE ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 114W-123W.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A 
HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH 
AS 40 KT. THE GALE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HRS...AND WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AS A SECOND AREA 
OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

W OF 120W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ANCHORED BY A CUT-OFF 
LOW JUST W OF SAN FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA...LIES ACROSS THE AREA N 
OF 16N W OF 120W. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET CURVES THROUGH THE BASE 
OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N140W TO 22N130W NEWD TO 30N120W AND THE 
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER. A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 115W-132W BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED 
ENOUGH THAT THE CLOUD FIELD IS SHRINKING WITHOUT REINFORCEMENT 
FROM THE N. FARTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LIES JUST W 
OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 11N. A SURFACE TROUGH 
APPEARS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 120W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS 
OCCURRING IN A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

$$
BERG