000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 7N100W 9N115W 11N130W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 6N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N124W 12.5N98W AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 9.5N139W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED N OF AREA NEAR 35N125W WITH A TROUGH 
SW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 30N136W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S 
ALONG 21N130W BECOMING NARROW TO YET ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 
11N122W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
24N W OF 125W. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS 
ALONG 24N139W 16N130W. UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR 17N155W...IS OBSERVED UNDER THIS RIDGE. A LOW 
LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED JUST E OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH...ROUGHLY ALONG 8N124W 12.5N98W...WITH CONVECTION 
DESCRIBED WITH THE ITCZ ABOVE. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADS N WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 9N121W 18N117W.         

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 19N80W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING W ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 20N105W TO A CREST ALONG 
20N120W 33N112W 35N101W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 18N129W 32N117W AND SPILLS E ALONG 
THE RIDGE CREST OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND NOW OVER W 
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SEEN TO EVAPORATE. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
VERY DRY ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 94W AND 113W.  

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE 
WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED EARLIER FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 
85W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED W OVER THE E PAC N 
OF 7N E OF 90W. 

A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FRO 32N130W TO 13N103W AND IS EXPECTED 
TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS. GRADIENT S OF RIDGE WILL 
SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS IN 20 KT RANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. N WINDS 
ALONG W COAST BAJA PENINSULA IN THE 15 KT RANGE.   

GAP WINDS...GALE WINDS IN AND JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 42 HOURS AND THEN BE 
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER NLY SURGE WITH NLY WINDS INCREASING TO 45 
KT IN 48 HOURS. MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 54 
HOURS. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA DETECTED BY A 
03Z QUICK SCAT PASS...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT MIDDAY WED AS ENE WINDS BRIDGE THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS WELL.

$$
NELSON