000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 7N94W 10N108W 9N120W 10N130W
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-119W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE ONGOING GALE EVENT IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO AND ITS 
ADJACENT COAST IS RESULTING IN WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OVER 
THE GULF N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W-96W. LOW PRES FROM THE W CARIBBEAN 
THAT HAS MOVED ONSHORE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME 
HIGH PRES OVER SE MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS ALLOWING 
FOR THE GALE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MID 
WEEK. 

WAVEWATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SW SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WITH 17 
SECOND PERIODS REACHING THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS 
BY LATE MON. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF...THE 
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH THE OPPOSING WIND 
WAVES AND SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
CREATE AN AREA OF CONFUSED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS SW OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IN MIXED SW AND NE SWELL.

OTHERWISE E OF 120W...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL AND 
CONVECTION REMAINS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT.

W OF 120W...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 17N AND A LOW 
LATITUDE UPPER CYCLONE OVER 5N117W IS PROMPTING MODEST 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 119W...WHICH IN TURN 
IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM 
8N114W TO 15N110W. FURTHER W...CONVECTION WITH FORMER TROUGH 
ALONG 135W THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FALLEN VICTIM TO UPPER 
WESTERLY FLOW AND IS SUBSIDING. MEANWHILE...A PATCH OF MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADES IS EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY S OF HIGH 
PRES TO THE N. BROAD AREA OF SW SWELL IS MARCHING THROUGH THE 
AREA.
$$

AGUIRRE