000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040313
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 8N110W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINTS 
10.2N113.4W AND 8.5N116.8W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND 
GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS THE CAUSE OF GALE 
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP. THE LOW PRES IN THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL IN MOST GLOBAL 
MODELS SO FAR. IF THIS DEEPENS FURTHER AND LINGERS OFF THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...WINDS COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY.  

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES 
THE SEA CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. THE WW3 MODEL IS SHOWING A LARGE 
BAND OF 8 FT 16S PERIODS SW SWELL MOVING TOWARD THE MEXICAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS BY MON...WITH ONGOING LARGE SHORT PERIOD 
WIND WAVES AND SWELL THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THE OPPOSING 
SWELL MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AN AREA OF LARGE AND CONFUSED SEAS 
IN THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA AND JUST TO THE SOUTH MON INTO TUE. IN 
ADDITION...THE LARGE SWLY SWELL WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF 
LARGE AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
LACKING...AND ELY SHEAR ALOFT. 

W OF 120W...
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 131W IS SUPPORTING MODEST CONVECTION NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 121W AND 132W.  THE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BETWEEN 12N AND 24N. OTHERWISE...MIXED 
NW AND NE SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE WATERS N OF 24N W OF 125W. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWLY SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT WITH 16S PERIODS WILL 
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
LL