000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 8N110W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 
10.3N110.5W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE LINE 
FROM 9N123W 11N130W 12.5N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND 
GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS THE CAUSE OF GALE 
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP. THE LOW PRES IN THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL IN MOST GLOBAL 
MODELS SO FAR. IF THIS DEEPENS FURTHER AND LINGERS OFF THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...WINDS COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY.  

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES 
THE SEA CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. THE WW3 MODEL IS SHOWING A LARGE 
BAND OF 8 FT 16S PERIODS SW SWELL MOVING TOWARD THE MEXICAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS BY MON...WITH ONGOING LARGE SHORT PERIOD 
WIND WAVES AND SWELL THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THE OPPOSING 
SWELL MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AN AREA OF LARGE AND CONFUSED SEAS 
IN THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA AND JUST TO THE SOUTH MON INTO TUE. IN 
ADDITION...THE LARGE SWLY SWELL WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF 
LARGE AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
LACKING...AND ELY SHEAR ALOFT. 

W OF 120W...
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 132W IS SUPPORTING MODEST CONVECTION NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 129W AND 134W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ALONG 134W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH 
PRES N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES BETWEEN 12N AND 24N. OTHERWISE...MIXED NW AND NE 
SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE WATERS N OF 24N W OF 125W. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWLY SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT WITH 16S PERIODS WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
LL