000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 6N100W 11N134W 11N140W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W-120W 
AND W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A DOMINATING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS IN CONTROL ALONG 18N WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE 
REGION...EXCEPT FOR INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM HONDURAS SEWD. 
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW LIES N OF THE RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO 
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 102W AND ANOTHER ALONG 
113W NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG DRY 
SURGE HAS CLEARED OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE MEXICAN COAST WWD 
TO 125W WITHIN A BELT BETWEEN 10N AND 22N. N OF 22N...THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ADVECTING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD DOWN 
THE BAJA COAST WITH SOME LOW STRATUS CREEPING ONSHORE NEAR PUNTA 
EUGENIA.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN IN 
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING WELL S TO 9N. IN FACT...WINDS HAVE 
BEEN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS SUCH THAT COASTAL UPWELLING 
HAS COOLED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 65 F (18 C) WITHIN 
THE GULF WHILE WATERS JUST TO THE E AND W ARE STILL NEAR 85 F 
(30 C). MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER TEHUANTEPEC TO 
GALE FORCE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. NAM 
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT WITH THE 
STRENGTH OF THE EVENT...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COOL SSTS THE REGION 
MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT THE STRONGER NAM WINDS.

W OF 120W...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N120W SW TO 10N140W AND 
SEPARATES DRY TO THE S FROM DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE N. THE FLOW N 
OF THE RIDGE IS SWLY AHEAD OF A SHEARED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS 
FROM CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND MOISTURE 
FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ITCZ IS BEING DRAWN 
NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS 
LIES N OF 20N MOVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. TO THE S...A 
WELL-DEFINED TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 136W 
MOVING W 10-15 KT AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTMS IN ITS 
VICINITY. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 140W WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 
HRS.

$$
BERG