000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N81W 7N90W 8N100W 8N115W 10N126W
12N132W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 11N122.5W 
12N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A MID/UPPER THAT RUNS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WRN MEXICO REMAINS
HE DOMINANT AND INFLUENCING FEATURE HERE AS ITS ASSOCIATED 
STABLE AIR ENVIRONMENT PLAGUE BY ABUNDANT SINKING AIR CONTINUES 
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...INCLUDING THAT TIED TO THE ITCZ... 
PRACTICALLY THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PORTION OF THE REGION. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE TRAILING TROUGH OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE 
NOEL...HAS SPILLED INTO THE AREA E OF 88W.

A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1224 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED 20-25 KT
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID ZCDG4
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REPORTED N WINDS OF 35 KT THIS 
MORNING BETWEEN 1200-1300 UTC BUT IS RUNNING ABOUT 5 KT TOO 
HIGH. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE LIKELY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRES SURGING SSE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE 
GRADIENT IN THIS REGION. FOR THAT REASON...A GALE WARNING HAS 
BEEN PUT IN EFFECT TO BEGIN IN A LITTLE OVER THE 24 HRS FOR THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

W OF 110W...
EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW COVERS THE REGION NW OF 
A LINE FROM 11N140W TO 30N118W. THIS FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
TO ADVECT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
NE TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING E 20 KT EXTENDS FROM 27N115W SE TO 
21N110W. TO THE S AND E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...AN UPPER 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N133W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF 
THE HIGH COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SFC TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 17N131W TO 10N134W IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 
122W-126W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED FARTHER SE NEAR 6N117W
MOVING W 15-20 KT IS SURROUNDED IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 

$$
AGUIRRE