000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N81W 7N97W 9N111W 8N121W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 125W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FLATTENING 
A MID-UPPER RIDGE WHICH RUNS E-W ALONG 17N/18N. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED STABLE AIR PUSHING SWD WITH THE SHORTWAVE 
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY STABLE WHICH HAS 
SUFFICIENTLY SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE...FROM THE TRAILING TROUGH OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE 
NOEL...HAS SPILLED INTO THE AREA E OF 90W.

QSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES DID NOT QUITE CAPTURE THE TEHUANTEPEC 
REGION THIS MORNING...BUT SHIP MRDQ67 REPORTED 20 KT AT 06Z. 
GIVEN THIS REPORT AND THE CONTINUED CLEAR SWATH SEEN ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRES SURGING SSE WHICH WILL 
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT IN THIS REGION. FOR THAT REASON...A GALE 
WARNING IS IN PLACE BEGINNING SAT EVENING. 

W OF 110W...
EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW COVERS THE REGION NW OF 
A LINE FROM 11N140W TO 24N107W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A 
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS W OF 130W. E 
OF 130W...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER LIKELY 
DUE TO A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALONG 123W AND OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TO THE S AND E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 
LINE...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N134W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
NEAR A SFC TROUGH ALONG 129W FROM 11N-17N IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 125W-127W. A 
LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED FARTHER SE NEAR 6N115W SURROUNDED IN 
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 

A 03Z QSCAT PASS REVEALED NELY TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE 
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N W OF ABOUT 125W. THESE TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

$$
CANGIALOSI