000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 5N100W 13N127W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 123W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW HAS SHIFTED FARTHER S OVER THE PAST 
FEW DAYS COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE ERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. THE SRNMOST EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES 
IS AROUND 20N WITH A RIDGE AXIS SPANNING ACROSS SRN MEXICO ALONG 
18N. THE FLOW IS QUITE ZONAL AT THE MOMENT...SO THE LACK OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH/DIVERGENCE IS KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 90W-110W. E OF 90W...THE 
ITCZ HAS BEEN PULLED N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO BROAD 
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE 
IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 6N E OF 88W.

VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEAR SWATH 
EMANATING SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 
NEAR 30 KT. STRONGER HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO BY SAT...AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT EVENING FOR WINDS 
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 35 KT.

W OF 110W...
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS WWD ROUGHLY ALONG 17N AS 
FAR W AS ABOUT 120W. TO THE N OF THE RIDGE...WESTERLY FLOW IS 
BECOMING ESTABLISHED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIES E OF 
120W...AND THIS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N OF THE 
ITCZ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK LOCATED 
N OF 24N. W OF 120W...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTAINS A LITTLE MORE 
MOISTURE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLIES EXTENDING N OF 15N. 
THESE ARE LOCATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW 
CENTERED NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. S OF 15N...THE UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW TURNS TO THE SE TOWARDS THE EQUATOR...AND THE RESULTING 
DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 
120W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO LOCATED NEAR A SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 131W S OF 16N...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.

$$
BERG