000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 8N100W 10N112W 11N120W 10N130W
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 137W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING S ABOUT 15 KT
IS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94.5W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WNW THROUGH 20N100W TO NW MEXICO. FLOW PATTERN AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ZONAL WITH AMPLE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATE DRY SINKING AIR SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA. SOME TRACES OF 
MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN 
IS SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N E OF 89W. 
ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS EVIDENT HERE. AT THE SURFACE
...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SPILLS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM N OF THE FRONT TO 
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE 
WINDS WEAKENED 24 HOURS AGO...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 
KT CONTINUE THERE S TO 13N AND BETWEEN 94W-96W. LOW CLOUD 
STREAMERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE GULF ARE SEEN ON VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING S TO 12N. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO ONLY 
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 48-72 HRS...THEN PICK UP 
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE AGAIN.

W OF 110W...
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 15-20 KT 
IS NEAR 22N115W. IT IS EMBEDDED IN TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 
25N116.5W TO 21N113W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FARTHER W
FROM 25N SE TO 18N130W. IT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SWLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 12N AND W OF 131W. THE FLOW 
IS DIVERGENT IN THE AREA S OF 15N AS SOME OF THE WINDS TURN TO 
THE SE...AND THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE 
ITCZ W OF 120W. A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT EXETNDS FROM
16N125W TO 8N128W. THE TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR
THE ITCZ W OF 135W.

$$
AGUIRRE