000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010752
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0730 UTC.

...ITCZ...

8N80W 7N95W 10N116W 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND 
93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 133W AND 134W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED STRONG 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
NEAR 34N121W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 32N136W...BEYOND 28N140W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 20N150W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N114W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N117W TO 16N120W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THE ITCZ IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD
A BIT TO 14N125W AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH COMBINATION.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
FOR THE ITCZ...SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AWAY FROM THE FLOW AROUND T.S. NOEL. IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN 
GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 13N103W TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THEN TOWARD NORTHERN 
MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 3N84W 7N91W 
10N98W.
 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW WAS SEEN IN YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AS THE STREAM OF LOW CLOUDS REACHED NEAR 7N100W. WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY INCREASE AT TIMES TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS MOMENT. 

$$
MT