000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 9N84W 6N101W 12N133W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 118W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...NLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE 
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY...JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 
THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP...BETWEEN A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
CELL OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO...AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL IN THE 
BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE 
DIMINISHING FURTHER TOWARD THE WEEKEND. E TO SE WINDS ALOFT ARE 
EVIDENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
ALONG ROUGHLY 13N E OF 112W. SW FLOW ALOFT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N115W. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT S OF THE UPPER CYCLONE IS AIDING THE MODEST 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. ELSEWHERE...THE 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED.  

W OF 120W...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 16N ALONG 
135W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 
THE ITCZ IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH 
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 132W. NWLY SHEAR ON THE W SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STIFLE FURTHER CONVECTIVE GROWTH. TO THE N OF 
THE AREA IS A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES ALSO SHIFTING SLOWLY W. 
SCATTEROMETER...SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW 
FRESH ELY TRADES AND ASSOCIATED NE SWELL TO 10 FT EVIDENT IN 
THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN