000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 6N96W 9N110W 13N133W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
113W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS 
NRN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 10N110W. JUST TO THE N OF 
THE RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NW GULF 
OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF NE MEXICO...AND THESE TWO FEATURES 
COMBINED ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 90W-110W. A LITTLE BIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS 
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE ITCZ HAS BEEN LIFTED 
NWD...AND THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS LIE N OF 7N AND 
E OF 85W.

STRONG NLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THESE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 35 KT WITHIN ABOUT 12 HRS ON WED 
MORNING.

W OF 110W...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED SW OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA NEAR 22N119W AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 11N-26N E OF 125W INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS VIRTUALLY CLOUDLESS WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A FEW WISPY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FARTHER W...A DEEP 
NEARLY CUT-OFF TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 137W N OF 15N WITH A 
SOUTHERLY JET LOCATED ALONG 130W...TURNING NE TOWARDS SRN 
CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
JET...EMANATING FROM OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TSTM 
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 
133W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT AND APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IN THAT REGION.    

$$
BERG