000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 6N96W 11N110W 12N130W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 8N119W 
15N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS 
NRN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 10N110W. JUST TO THE N OF 
THE RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH SE TEXAS AND 
PARTS OF NE MEXICO...AND THESE TWO FEATURES COMBINED ARE 
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 
90W-110W. A LITTLE BIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE ITCZ HAS BEEN LIFTED NWD...AND THUS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS LIE N OF 7N AND E OF 89W.

STRONG NLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THESE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 35 KT WITHIN ABOUT 18 HRS ON WED 
MORNING.

W OF 110W...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED SW OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA NEAR 21N121W AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 11N-25N E OF 125W INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS VIRTUALLY CLOUDLESS WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A FEW WISPY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FARTHER W...A DEEP 
NEARLY CUT-OFF TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 137W N OF 15N WITH A 
SOUTHERLY JET LOCATED ALONG 130W...TURNING NE TOWARDS SRN 
CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
JET...EMANATING FROM OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TSTM 
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 
131W MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT AND APPEAR TO BE ENHANCING THE 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IN THAT REGION.    

$$
BERG