000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301011
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...10N85W 7N94W 7N110W 10N123W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 86.5W...WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF 9N84.5W...
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF 8N112W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN
117W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF 7.5N118W.

...DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION VALID 0915 UTC TUE OCT 30...
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N137W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N140W TO 13N141W. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE 
SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND WITHIN AT LEAST 360 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 

ONE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 22N18W TO 32N130W. A SECOND RIDGE GOES FROM THE SAME 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N120W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 13N114W TO 
19N110W BEYOND 21N105W AT THE MEXICO COAST.

WE ARE GIVING DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 1.0/1.0 FOR AN AREA OF
SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM TIME TO TIME...
NEAR 13N127W AT 30/0600 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A WEAKENING TREND FROM 
WHATEVER WAS ITS LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE SINCE ITS FIRST 
CLASSIFICATION ON 29/1800 UTC. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS
AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SUDDEN
BURSTS OF COMPARATIVELY DEEPER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DURING WHAT MAY BE ITS
WEAKENING TREND...IF IT IN FACT IS WEAKENING.

THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE GULF IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 42 HOURS...
WINDS BELOW GALE CONDITIONS AFTER 42 HOURS. 

$$
MT