000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 9N84W 7N95W 7N100W 10N114W 13N122W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-117W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1034 MB CENTERED OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO IS CREATING A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GALE CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TONIGHT FOR
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 42 HOURS. A QUIKSCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 0100 UTC INDICATED 30-35 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. A SHIP REPORT NEAR 12N93W INDICATED NE WINDS OF 30 
EARLIER TONIGHT. 

A MID/UPPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SW ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO...AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 18N112W. NLY FLOW 
ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE W ARE BRINGING 
VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE WHOLE AIR. THIS 
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE 
AREA E OF 110W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS LEFTOVER FROM 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ARE OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N87W 8N84.5W.

W OF 115...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N118W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW 
MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 15N124W. FURTHER W...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 24N139W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO NEAR 14N139W. AMPLE MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC IS 
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM 8N-16N W OF 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT IS NEAR 
13N127W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 17N126W AND S TO NEAR 
9N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
45 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED 
BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AS 
WELL AS BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ. RATHER FRESH TRADE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO PERSISTS ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES 1029 MB 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N142W. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS NW SWELLS OF UP TO POSSIBLY 12 FT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON 
...SUBSIDING TO 10-11 FT AFTERWARDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK 
OVER THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 10N-25N W OF ABOUT 130W.

$$
AGUIRRE