000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...ITCZ....

AXIS ALONG 9N84W 7N95W 7N100W 10N115W 13N122W 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1034 MB CENTERED OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO IS CREATING A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN ONLY A FEW 
HOURS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 
THIS MORNING SHOWED FRESH NE TO E WINDS RELATED TO THE 
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS EXTENDING N OF THE ITCZ AS FAR W AS 105W. A 
FEW SHIP REPORTS CONFIRM WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATING 8 TO 10 FT N 
SWELL MAY BE ONGOING S OF TEHUANTEPEC AS FAR S AS 5N RELATED TO 
THE STRONG GAP WINDS. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SW 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 18N112W. NLY 
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE W ARE 
BRINGING VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE WHOLE AIR. 
THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE 
ENTIRE AREA E OF 110W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS LEFTOVER 
FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ARE OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N87W 8N84.5W.

W OF 115...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N118W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW 
MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 15N124W. FURTHER W...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 24N139W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO NEAR 14N139W. AMPLE MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC IS 
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM 8N-16N W OF 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT IS NEAR 
13N125W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 18N124.5W AND S TO NEAR 
9N126W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM SW OF THE 
LOW CENTER. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AS WELL AS BY 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ. RATHER FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO PERSISTS ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES 1029 MB 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N145W. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS NW SWELLS OF UP TO POSSIBLY 12 FT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
...SUBSIDING TO 10-11 FT AFTERWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK 
OVER THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 10N-25N W OF ABOUT 130W.

$$
AGUIRRE