000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...ITCZ....

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 8N100W 8N110W 9N120W 11N132W 
10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N130W THROUGH 28N134W TO ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING SLOWLY NWD NEAR 
22N140W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N140W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 16N140W THROUGH 
24N139W TO N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N124W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 800 NM SE OF THE 
SUBSIDENCE AREA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
MOVING NE 15 KT IS NEAR 23N117W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NNE FROM THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER TO WELL N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES. NWLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING 
VERY DRY AIR UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENVIRONMENT SOUTHEASTWARD 
TOWARDS MUCH OF THE E PACIFIC E OF 117W TO JUST ABOUT ALL OF 
MEXICO.
 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SE MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. DRY AIR MENTIONED ABOVE 
ENCOMPASSES THE TROUGH NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG AND NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST...AND AS FAR 
S AS THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT EXTENDS ALONG 120W/121W FROM 
10N TO 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 13.5N122W.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N131W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING S TO 27N131W. BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.

GAP WINDS...STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS 
RESULTING IN A TROUGH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO 
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE