000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...ITCZ....
AXIS ALONG 9N83W 8N100W 9N110W 10N122W 11N132W 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 104W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...

POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NEARLY
STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N131W. THE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SWWD TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION LIFTING SLOWLY NWD NEAR 22N140W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A 
FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 22N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 16N140W THROUGH 24N139W TO N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 32N124W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 800 NM SE OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA. 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN ARIZONA ACROSS NW MEXICO TO A 
WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N110W.
 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS SWD ACROSS THE 
WRN GULF OF MEXICO THEN INTO MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR ACAPULCO.  
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO PACIFIC 
SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT EXTENDS FROM 19N119W THROUGH
16N121W TO 13N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 26N134W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH 
EXTENDS N TO A LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N131W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS 
RESULTING IN A TROUGH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO 
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE