000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...ITCZ....
AXIS ALONG 7N78W 7N94W 12N115W 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 7N78W 10N86W 8N100W 10N104W 11N116W 15N118W AND 
12N130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH HAS CLOSED OFF INTO A VERY STRONG CYCLONIC CENTER 
NEAR 33N130W ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21N140W. 
FURTHER E A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS NRN MEXICO AND IS 
BLOCKING MOVEMENT OF THE STRONG TROUGH CENTERS. ANOTHER MID 
LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER W ALONG 150W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT PRES 
IS FALLING NEAR 33N130W AND A LOW CENTER MAYBE FORMING. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE HAS RECEDED WWD AND STRONGEST TRADES OVER OUR 
REGION ARE N OF 23N W OF 135W WITH SSMI SHOWING 25 KT. NO PASS 
FROM QUIKSCAT. GALE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SHOWING 30 TO 35 KT WINDS. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE LIGHT NWLY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS STRONGEST S OF 5N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL TO THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH 
THE STRONG CYCLONIC CENTER DRIFTING SW TO NEAR 32N132W. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC WHILE OTHER GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. NE TRADES MOSTLY 
15 KT EXCEPT N OF 28N W OF 137W POSSIBLY NE TO 20 KT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NLY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT S OF 5N.

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE W ALONG 150W BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH 
TO ALLOW WESTERLIES TO WORK INTO THE STRONG CYCLONIC CENTER AND 
MOVE IT ENE TOWARD THE CA COAST. THE OTHER MID LEVEL LOW CENTER 
REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 22N140W. A LARGE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO SW TO 15N128W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 GALE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AS A RIDGE REMAINS 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK OVER THE 
REGION N OF 10N W OF 110W..THUS NE TRADES 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN 
15N AND 24N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST NWLY 10 TO 15 
KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 7N E OF 100W.  

$$
RRG