000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272134 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT OCT 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ.... AXIS ALONG 9N84W 9N96W 12N115W 10N127W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 125W. ...DISCUSSION... POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN EXPANDING SYMMETRIC MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 34N129W SWWD THROUGH 30N131W TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N138W TO A BASE NEAR 18N145W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE NORTHERNMOST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N/ITCZ. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKY MOUNTAINS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N108W. A BROAD AREA OF SWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WAS NOTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH GENERALLY OVER THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW CONUS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS SWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 19N100W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO PACIFIC SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION. DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT LOW OF T.S. KIKO HAS FINALLY DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 16N114W. SFC RIDGE COVERED THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 125W BUT WAS GRADUALLY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WERE STILL NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. GAP WINDS... BUILDING SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN THE SECOND GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THUS FAR THIS SEASON. WINDS ARE FCST TO PEAK AROUND 40 KT IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. $$ COBB