000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ....
AXIS ALONG 9N84W 13N111W 11N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AXIS W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH SHARP UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N127W 
THROUGH 33N130W THEN SSWD THROUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 28N135W TO 22N140W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WAS INDICATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND ELSEWHERE NW 
OF THE TROUGH WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM 
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR 
CORNERS REGION OF THE U.S. ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO A 
WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N110W. A SHEARING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WAS NEAR 
26N125W AND WAS MOVING NNEWD AT 15 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. 

DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO TO MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 19N98W WITH VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W. DRY AIR WAS KEEPING ITCZ CONVECTION 
TO A MINIMUM. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NWD E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS FLORIDA AND NWD TO 
THE MID ATLC REGION OF THE U.S. FUELING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE 
AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT LOW OF T.S. KIKO...1009 MB...IS 
LOCATED NEAR 20N123W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT 
PASS ALSO INDICATED 20+ KT UNFLAGGED WINDS WITHIN 120-150 NM IN 
THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. HOWEVER MORE RECENT SHIP REPORTS 
SUGGESTS WINDS ARE DOWN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. ANOTHER LOW PRES
1010 MB...IS CENTERED NEAR 16N113W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS 
NOTED. SFC RIDGE N OF 23N W OF 125W IS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE 
TO STRONG NE WINDS WITH THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING 
WINDS OF 30 KT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 

GAP WINDS...
0036 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND ANOTHER AREA OF 20 KT WINDS FURTHER SOUTH 
GENERALLY WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N96W 12N98W. 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN 
ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITHIN 18 HOURS WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 40 KT IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR
TIMEFRAME.

$$
COBB