000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...ITCZ....
AXIS ALONG 9N84W 13N112W 10N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH SHARP UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 34N130W SSWD THROUGH A DEVELOPING 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N134W TO 24N140W. VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/SINKING AIR WAS INDICATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS AND ELSEWHERE NW OF THE TROUGH WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW U.S. ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N110W. A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WAS NEAR 25N125W AND WAS MOVING NNEWD AT 
15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. 

DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO TO MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 20N100W WITH VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W. DRY AIR WAS KEEPING ITCZ CONVECTION 
TO A MINIMUM. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NWD E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS FLORIDA AND NWD TO 
THE MID ATLC REGION OF THE U.S. FUELING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE 
AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT LOW OF T.S. KIKO...1010 MB...IS 
LOCATED NEAR 20N122W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NE 
QUADRANT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1346 UTC ALSO 
INDICATED 20+ KT UNFLAGGED WINDS WITHIN 120-150 NM IN THE NE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
16N112W...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED. SFC RIDGE WITHE AXIS FROM 
32N13W  TO 26N120W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING STRONG NE TRADES 
AND LARGE SWELLS N OF AROUND 25N W OF 125W. 

GAP WINDS...
1206 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20-30 KT WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ANOTHER AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS 
FURTHER SOUTH GENERALLY WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
14.5N95W 12N98W. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 40 KT BY 48 
HOURS.   

$$
COBB