000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ....
AXIS ALONG 9N84W  10N95W  14N107W  11N120W  8N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 92W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH FROM 32N128W TO 4N123W FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY SHARP 
RIDGE ALONG 114W MAINTAIN VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ENTIRE 
E PAC W OF 106W.  SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 91W ALSO 
BRINGING DOWN DRY AIR MASS N OF 20N E OF 110W.  ONLY MOISTURE 
NOTED IS FROM 14N-18N E OF 106W. 

CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORCED E BY SECOND TROUGH NOW KEEP 
ITS MOISTURE EAST F CENTRAL AMERICA AND FLORIDA.  

NEW LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES NW CORNER OF E PAC 
ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE BUT A JET CORE OF 70 KT TAKES IT NE
AWAY FROM BASIN.  WITH SO MUCH DRYNESS AROUND IT ITCZ KEEPS 
CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM. 

AT THE SFC...RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1041 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW OF 
AREA TO 20N130W MAINTAINING STRONG NE TRADES AND LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS INTO E PAC THROUGH 48 HRS SPREADING S.  REMNANTS 
OF KIKO STILL SPINNING AT 19N121W BUT WINDS HAVE DECREASED 
SIGNIFICANTLY.

GAP WINDS...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT EVENT SHOULD END 
IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.  HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT WIND SHOULD 
REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PERHAPS 
INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES