000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ....
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 11N107W 10N125W 11N134W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 
CARRYING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH DOES CUT ACROSS THE 
FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE REGION W OF 110W. THE 
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THIS AREA CONSISTS OF A WEAKENING CUT OFF 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N128W WITH INDUCED RIDGING BOTH TO THE E AND 
W OF THE CUT OFF. THE DRIEST AIR IS IN CONFLUENT ZONES ALOFT 
GENERALLY S OF 23N W OF 130W AND N OF 27N E OF 124W. THERE IS A 
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE E OF 110W. AN INVERTED UPPER 
TROUGH S OF MEXICO ALONG 106W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. HOWEVER...EVEN 
THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH LITTLE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ.

AT THE SFC...RIDGING EXTENDS SSE FROM A 1041 MB HIGH IN THE 
MID-LATITUDES. THE GRADIENT ON THE S SIDE OF THE HIGH IS 
PRODUCING SOME 20 KT NELY TRADES ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER. THIS 
AREA OF WIND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SE SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE 
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PUSHES A LITTLE CLOSER. THE LARGE N 
TO NELY FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADIENT E OF THE HIGH WILL 
INCREASE SEAS QUITE A BIT POSSIBLY APPROACHING 15 FT ACROSS THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS 
OF KIKO IS STILL SPINNING NEAR 19N121W BUT RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES INDICATE LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE REMNANT SYSTEM.

GAP WINDS...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. A 1232Z HI-RES QSCAT PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS IN THE 
35-40 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...SHIP WGDE REPORTED WINDS NEAR 30 
KT AND 12 FT SEAS. GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS GALE 
EVENT SHOULD END IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE 
THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG IN THE GAP FOR THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND PERHAPS INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE ON SUN OR 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES S. THIS 
PERIOD IS STILL BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

$$
CANGIALOSI