000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...ITCZ....AXIS ALONG 10N84W 8N90W 10N102W 11N126W 9N136W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 8N82W 8N84W TO 7N92W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 10N96W 10N98W AND 10N136W.

ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 15N99W 14N101W 15N102W AND 14N104W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE SPRAWLING MID LEVEL RIDGE WITH A MEAN AXIS NEAR 25N140W 
ENE TO THE SW CONUS. ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE LIES THE 
REMNANTS OF KIKO NEAR 20.8N127.7W MOVING SLOWLY WWD. IN THE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS CIRCULATION STILL HOLDS SOME MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE IN CONTRAST TO A VERY DRY MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE THAT 
CONPRISES THE RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA ALONG 140W 
WILL AFFECT OUR REGION AS IT MOVES SE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE LIES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 
STRONGEST GRADIENT N OF 25N W OF 130W THUS NE TRADES TO 20 KT 
ARE ABOUT ALL THATS EVIDENT ACCORDING TO SSMI. REMNANT OF KIKO 
IS A LOW CENTER 1012 MB AT 06Z. GAP WINDS STILL BLOWING THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUSTY NE WINDS TO 
40 KT AND SEAS TO 17 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HR. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE 
LIGHT NWLY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT.  

LATER DAY 1 THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO BRUSH THE NW CORNER OF 
THE REGION. A WEAK CLOSED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG 
130W IS DRIFTING W ON THE S SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 POSSIBLE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC OTHERWISE OTHER GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 128W ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG 
PACIFIC RIDGE MOSTLY NW OF THE AREA. REMNANTS OF KIKO ABOUT TO 
FIZZLE OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN 
LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT.

FOR DAY 2 UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO 130W AND CAPTURES OLD 
CIRCULATION ALONG 130W. THE TWO FORM A LARGE TROUGH BETWEEN 120W 
AND 135W N OF 18N. WHATS LEFT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES 
OVER WRN MEXICO ALONG 108W. ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 34N148W 
WILL REMAIN STATONARY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNDER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CONTINUE A 
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT N OF 24N W OF 138W WITH NE WINDS 25 KT. 
NLY SWELL IN THIS AREA WILL BE INCREASING 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT AND WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC 
DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE 
TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 8N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W AND ALSO S OF 4N E 
OF 100W WITH SLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT. 

$$
RRG