000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242218 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 24 2007

AMENDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE OTHER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE ITCZ

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2030 UTC.

...ITCZ...9N84W 8N90W 11N108W 10N116W 11N126W 8N136W 8N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 102W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 129W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 99W TO 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N123W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX 
AT 21N130W THEN TO 5N135W.  TWO ANTICYCLONES ON EACH SIDE OF 
TROUGH HELP MAINTAIN ENTIRE E PAC VERY DRY W OF 108W WITH 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS.  ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ W 
OF 135W SURVIVES DRYNESS.  DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS RIDGE 
ACROSS SRN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ALLOWING UPPER WINDS TO 
ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WRN CARIBBEAN INTO E PAC E OF 108W 
S OF 20N.  DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 90W BRINGS DRY AIR 
MASS INTO AREA THAT SHOULD CUT OFF MOIST FLOW.  

AT THE SURFACE...
REMNANTS OF KIKO...NOW A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...AT 19N118W. 
MOST DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOST AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
REMAIN WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF CENTER.  LOW PRES FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  WEAK COLD FRONT ENTER E PAC BASIN 
WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS AND REACH 30N117W TO 22N140W WITHIN 48 HRS 
INCREASING WIND AND SEAS N OF FRONT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 30 HRS THEN 
DIMINISHING WIND AND SUBSIDING SEAS THROUGH 48 HRS.  CROSS 
EQUATORIAL S WINDS AND SWELLS BEGIN AFFECTING E PAC S OF 10N E 
OF 118W WITHIN 30 HRS LASTING THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES