000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241541 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL...AMD
1605 UTC WED OCT 24 2007

AMENDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE OTHER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE ITCZ

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1430 UTC.

...ITCZ...
9N84W 7N90W 9N98W 11N109W 11N117W 11N125W 9N134W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 79W...FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 84W AND 
92W...FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 103W...AND FROM 9N
TO 10N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO MEXICO COAST
BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N120W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE CENTRAL-TO- 
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CROSSES INTERIOR MEXICO TO JUST 
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
21N123W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO BEYOND
13N140W. A SMALLER SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST 
OF THE 21N123W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH 
OF 10N WEST OF 106W IS COVERED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE. ONLY A BIT OF ITCZ PRECIPITATION EXISTS IN THIS AREA.
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN CENTRAL HONDURAS. A TROUGH RUNS FROM 
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE CENTRAL 
HONDURAS CYCLONIC CENTER...TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 
9N89W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING 
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...STILL ABOUT 24 HOURS AWAY.

1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANT LOW OF KIKO...
NEAR 18N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 18N117W. A 20 KT SHIP OBSERVATION IS JUST WEST
OF THIS LOW CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
14N121W 23N125W BEYOND 31N132W.

THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT WINDS SHOW 40 KT WIND OBSERVATIONS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR A GALE
TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SURROUNDING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST 
TO BE LESS THAN GALE FORCE.

$$
MT