000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 13N100W 10N114W 12N124W 
9N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

RATHER CHAOTIC PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A SW-NE 
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N143W 
NEWD 32N129W. OTHER ANTICYCLONES WERE CENTERED N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N118W AND NEAR 14N113W. A CUT OFF LOW WAS BOXED IN 
BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONES NOTED ABOVE NEAR 20N127W AND WAS MOVING 
WWD 10-15 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT 
COVERED THE AREA W OF 110W BUT WAS STRONGEST IN THE CONFLUENT 
ZONE BETWEEN THE CUT OFF LOW AND THE ANTICYCLONE W OF 140W. THIS 
STABLE AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVEN ALONG THE 
ITCZ. THERE IS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS/COL OVER CENTRAL BAJA INDUCED 
BY AN UPPER LOW/SHARP TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. A LARGE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A COLD 
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N113W EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC E OF 
95W AND WAS SEPARATED FROM ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN BY A RATHER SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BELIZE
SWD ACROSS HONDURAS TO THE E PACIFIC ALONG 88W. MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOTED W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 105W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX 1031 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 
38N150W AND THE REMNANTS OF KIKO 1008 MB ANALYZED NEAR 18N116W. 
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE 
TRADES. WINDS NEAR THE REMNANT LOW ARE NEAR 20 KT PER THE MOST 
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
24 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
1026 MB HIGH PRES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND A WELL DEFINED COLD 
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...HAS PRODUCED THE FIRST COOL SEASON GAP WIND EVENT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY HAVE REACHED 
STORM FORCE AS A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 40-45 KT WINDS
WITH ISOLATED 50 KT WINDS. SEVERAL LAND OBSERVATIONS OVER S 
MEXICO HAVE REPORTED GUSTS NEAR 38-40 KT EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS 
GAP WIND EVENT HAS PEAKED AS THESE SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE COME 
DOWN. GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE FORECASTING SLOWLY RELAXING 
WINDS BUT STILL ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS 
SAME STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE 
ROCKIES...IS PRODUCING SANTA ANA FLOW AND STRONG WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGES REVEALED A PLUME OF 
SMOKE EXTENDING W FROM THE SRN CALIFORNIA FIRES INTO THE EPAC 
WATERS N OF 28N E OF 130W.

$$
COBB