000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 12N98W 11N120W 8N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO 
AND A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...HAS PRODUCED THE FIRST COOL 
SEASON GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WARNINGS 
HAVE VERIFIED ACCORDING TO A FEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES DURING THE 
DAY. AT 12Z...A QSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND 
VECTORS. LATER AROUND 1630Z...A PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS DEPICTED 
A FEW 40 KT WIND VECTORS. JUST RECENTLY AT 00Z ANOTHER QSCAT 
PASS SHOWED 45 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE GAP...THOUGH THEY WERE 
FLAGGED. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL LAND OBSERVATIONS OVER S MEXICO 
HAVE REPORTED GUSTS NEAR 45 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS GAP WIND 
EVENT IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AS GFS AND NAM MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS SLOWLY RELAXING BUT STILL ABOVE GALE FORCE 
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THIS SAME STRONG HIGH PRES 
RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...IS PRODUCING 
SANTA ANA FLOW AND STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGES REVEALED A PLUME OF SMOKE EXTENDING W 
FROM THE SRN CALIFORNIA FIRES INTO THE EPAC WATERS N OF 28N E OF 
130W.

ELSEWHERE...THE SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 
37N155W AND THE REMNANTS OF KIKO 1007 MB ANALYZED NEAR 18N115W. 
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE 
TRADES. WINDS NEAR THE REMNANT LOW ARE LIKELY NEAR 20 KT 
EXPECTED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE AND DECREASE AS THE LOW IS 
STEERED W BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND OPENS INTO A TROUGH. 

IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A CUT OFF LOW IS TRACKING W 
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W. RIDGING GENERALLY RULES E AND W OF THIS 
CUT OFF ANCHORED BY UPPER HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 18N143W...34N116W 
AND 14N113W. THERE IS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL BAJA 
INDUCED BY AN UPPER LOW/SHARP TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR DOMINATING NEARLY THE 
ENTIRE AREA...STRONGEST IN THE CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE CUT 
OFF LOW AND THE ANTICYCLONE W OF 140W. THIS STABLE AIRMASS IS 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVEN ALONG THE ITCZ. A LARGE TROUGH 
IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM 
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT 
REACHES THE FAR NW PORTION.

$$
CANGIALOSI