000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO 
WHICH NOW IS BASICALLY ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. AS OF 23/2100 
UTC THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING DEPRESSION WAS CENTERED NEAR 
18.3N 114.4W MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. PLEASE SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N82W 12N99W 11N120W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 97W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRES OVER MEXICO...BEHIND A WELL DEFINED FRONT...HAS 
PRODUCED THE FIRST GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 
THE COOL SEASON. THE WARNINGS THAT WE HAVE ADVERTISED ARE NOW 
VERIFIED BY A QSCAT PASS AROUND 12 Z THIS MORNING WHICH SHOWED A 
COUPLE BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND VECTORS. A PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS 
AROUND 1630Z SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WIND VECTORS. IN ADDITION 
...SEVERAL LAND OBSERVATIONS OVER S MEXICO HAVE REPORTED GUSTS 
NEAR 50 KT. THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER. THIS SAME 
STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE 
ROCKIES...IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

ELSEWHERE...THE SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 
31N138W AND THE WEAKENING KIKO CENTERED NEAR 18N114W. THE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE 
TRADES.

IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A CUT OFF LOW IS TRACKING W 
CENTERED NEAR 19N125W. RIDGING GENERALLY RULES W AND E OF THIS 
CUT OFF ANCHORED BY UPPER HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 18N143W...34N115W 
AND 14N113W. THERE IS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL BAJA 
INDUCED BY AN UPPER LOW/SHARP TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR DOMINATING NEARLY THE 
ENTIRE AREA...STRONGEST IN THE CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE CUT 
OFF LOW AND THE ANTICYCLONE W OF 140W. THIS STABLE AIRMASS IS 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION...EVEN ALONG THE ITCZ. A LARGE 
TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS 
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO 
DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE FAR NW PORTION.

$$
CANGIALOSI