000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231629
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO AT 23/1500 UTC WAS NEAR 
18.6N 113.0W MOVING WEST 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS WERE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING BUT POSSIBLY 
STILL REMNANT PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 
111W AND 112.5W.

...ITCZ...8N78W 10N90W 16N103W 10N110W 10N120W 8N140W. WARMING 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING BUT POSSIBLY STILL 
REMNANT PRECIPITATION FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W... 
AND WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N106W 10N126W 8N132W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N
TO 15.5N BETWEEN 96.5W AND 98W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
JUST SOUTH OF TEXAS ALONG 100W...EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 
17N126W TO 13N136W. THE TROUGH WAS UNDERCUTTING AN AMPLIFIED 
RIDGE ALONG 120W IN THE WESTERN U.S.A. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TROUGH AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 20N142W COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF
110W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE WEST OF 110W
EXCEPT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND T.D. KIKO AND IN THE ITCZ.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
8N91W. T.D. KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS 
PRODUCING A BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN 
U.S.A....AND WIND SPEEDS TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
N OF 24N AS EVIDENCED BY THE 23/1100 UTC SSMI IMAGERY. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITHIN 36-48 HRS. MODERATE 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
OCEAN GENERALLY SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 110W.  

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SOON. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOW UP IN
THE 23/1146 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN INTERIOR MEXICO ARE AT GALE FORCE
WITH GUSTS IN VERACRUZ REACHING 45 KT AND GUSTS IN VILLAHERMOSA
REACHING 75 KT. THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO LAST FOR 48 HOURS.

$$
MT