000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 112.3W OR ABOUT
265 NM...490 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AT 0900 UTC MOVING W 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
WERE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. KIKO HAS ONLY A SMALL BURST OF DEEP 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 60 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. KIKO
IS SITUATED IN A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE 
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OVER COOLER WATERS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO 
DISSIPATION TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. REFER TO NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...ALONG 8N78W 17N105W 12N115W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS E-CENTRAL TEXAS 
WSWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
17N127W TO 10N134W. TROUGH WAS UNDERCUTTING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE 
OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 120W. COMBINATION OF 
TROUGH AND A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 20N142W COVERS THE 
EAST PACIFIC W OF 110W WITH DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ITCZ MOISTURE FROM 8N TO 10N W OF 
135W. BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO 
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS YUCATAN INTO ITCZ S OF 12N 
WHICH EVAPORATES UPON REACHING THE DRY AIRMASS W OF 110W. T.D. 
KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DRY AIRMASS WITH MODERATE SW FLOW 
ADVECTING MOISTURE NEWD OVER NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS 
PRODUCING A BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS OVER SW CONUS AND NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N AS EVIDENCED
BY THE 0216 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITHIN 36-48 HRS. IN ADDITION MODERATE NE 
WINDS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS 
WELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC GENERALLY S OF 10N E OF 110W.  

GAP WINDS...
COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 12 HOURS AND USHER IN THE FIRST STRONG GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OF THE COOL SEASON. FORECAST WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

$$
COBB