000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO AT 19.4N 110.9W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W 9 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  KIKO HAS ONLY A 
SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W QUADRANT.  MOST OTHER 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOST.  OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE 
RESTRICTED IN E AND S QUADRANTS WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
MAINTAINS IT ON W AND N QUADRANTS.  COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING 
ADVERSE ENVIRON ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO KIKO BECOME A REMNANT LOW 
PRES WITHIN 24 HRS.  REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...ALONG 15N93W  11N110W  8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 104W AND WITHIN 30 
NM OF AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N TEXAS TO 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 18N123W TO EQUATOR AT 124W.  COMBINATION OF 
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 20N142W COVER ENTIRE E PAC 
W OF 112W WITH DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF 
SMALL AREA FROM 8N TO 10N W OF 136W.  BROAD RIDGE ALOFT OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS YUCATAN INTO 
ITCZ S OF 12N WHICH EVAPORATES UPON REACHING DRYNESS W OF 110W.  
ONLY OTHER MOISTURE SIGNATURE IS KIKO OUTFLOW ADVECTED NE OVER 
NW MEXICO BY UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS OVER SW CONUS UNDER 
HEALTHY HIGH PRES IN SW CONUS PROMPTS NW FLOW OVER GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 26N WHICH DIMINISHES WITHIN 36-48 HRS.  STRONG 
N-NW FLOW ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS N 
OF 20N W OF 110W.  SIMILARLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS AFFECT E 
PAC S OF 10N E OF 110W.  

STRONG COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE 
WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 30 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES