000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO AT 19.5N 109.9W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W 8 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  KIKO HAS SUDDENLY 
LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION AROUND ITS CENTER DUE TO MUCH DRIER 
STABLE AIR MASS W OF CENTER.  OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN E AND S 
QUADRANTS WHILE STILL EFFECTIVE W AND N QUADRANTS.  COOLER 
WATERS AND INCREASINGLY ADVERSE ENVIRON ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO 
KIKO DEMISE WITHIN 48 HRS.  REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...ALONG 10N85W 14N95W 10N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 104W AND WITHIN 30 
NM OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW TEXAS TO 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 20N122W TO EQUATOR AT 124W.  COMBINATION OF 
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 20N142W COVER ENTIRE E PAC 
W OF 110W WITH DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION 
OF SMALL AREA FROM 8N TO 10N W OF 135W.  BROAD RIDGE ALOFT OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS YUCATAN INTO 
ITCZ S OF 12N WHICH EVAPORATES UPON REACHING DRYNESS W OF 110W.  
ONLY OTHER MOISTURE SIGNATURE IS KIKO OUTFLOW ADVECTED NE OVER 
NW MEXICO BY UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS OVER SW CONUS UNDER 
HEALTHY HIGH PRES IN SW CONUS PROMPTS NW FLOW OVER GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 26N WHICH DIMINISHES WITHIN 36-48 HRS.  STRONG 
N-NW FLOW ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS N 
OF 20N W OF 110W.  SIMILARLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS AFFECT E 
PAC S OF 10N E OF 110W.  

STRONG COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE 
WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 36 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES