000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221633
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO AT 22/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
19.7N 108.9W MOVING WEST 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
KIKO UNDERWENT A BURST OF COMPARATIVELY DEEPER CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION DURING THE TIME OF THE 22/1200 UTC DVORAK 
CLASSIFICATION. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING 
THE LAST 3 HOURS SINCE THE CLASSIFICATION TIME. IT APPEARS
THAT KIKO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS KIKO TO THE NORTH AND WEST. KIKO'S 
ANTICIPATED TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A 
MORE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTER OF KIKO. 

...ITCZ...
9N84W 10N90W 14N100W 11N110W 9N120W 10N135W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N96W AND 
WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF 8.5N 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 
11N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND 
ONLY REMNANT SHOWERS NORTH OF 13N TO LAND BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N124W TO 26N115W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 17N140W 27N140W BEYOND 32N133W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG 105W INTO MEXICO NORTH OF 26N.
BOTH UPPER FEATURES ARE HAVING AN EFFECT ON T.S. KIKO. THE RIDGE 
IS PRODUCING A DRY ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 110W.
THE TROUGH IS BRINGING WITH IT A SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS 
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE JET STREAM IS ACCELERATING THE OUTFLOW 
FROM T.S. KIKO. A STRONG SURFACE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S.A. AND WORKING ITS WAY INTO MEXICO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
AT LEAST 20 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE THE PRODUCT OF THIS 
HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. A GALE IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IN 30 HOURS.

$$
MT