000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 19.6N 108.1W OR ABOUT 140 NM WSW OF 
CABO CORRIENTES AND 225 NM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING 
WNW 2 KT AT 0900 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 
KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. KIKO 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID LEVEL 
ATMOSPHERE JUST TO THE NW OF THE STORM. THE APPROACH OF A VERY 
STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO THE N IS PRODUCING A STRONG SUBTROPIC JET 
JUST NW OF KIKO WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME SWLY SHEAR BUT ALSO A 
STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE N SIDE OF THE STORM. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A 
VERY COLD CLOUD COVER OVER THE CIRCULATION OF KIKO.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 9N80W 11N93W 18N106W 
11N110W 9N120W 10N132W 9N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 
11N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG A LINE FROM 11N102W TO 11N109W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N137W AND 9N140W.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 16.5N100W OR JUST S OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE UPPER RIGDE ALONG 130W DOMINATES THE SCENE TONIGHT. A 
STRONG UPPER TROUGH ALONG 105W CONTINUES TO LOWER MID LEVEL 
HEIGHTS OVER MEXICO N OF 26N. BOTH UPPER FEATURES ARE HAVING AN 
EFFECT ON T.S. KIKO. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A VERY DRY 
ENVIRONMENT W OF 110W ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 
STRONG TROUGH HAS A SUBTROPIC JET OVER NW MEXICO THAT IS 
ACCELERATING THE OUTFLOW FROM T.S. KIKO. ALSO ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WRN 
CONUS AND WORKING IT'S WAY INTO MEXICO. STRONG NWLY WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE THE PRODUCT OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND 
SSMI SHOWS 25 TO 30 KT. GFS MODEL HAS SIMILAR WINDS AT 06Z. 
QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THAT AREA BUT DOES SHOW NE WINDS OF 25 KT 
OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE THAT IS 
ORIENTED NE/SW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. GAP WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT.

LATER DAY 1 THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER TX AND NE MEXICO 
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH DIVING RAPIDLY S OVER THE WRN 
GULF OF MEXICO..THUS A DEVELOPING GALE CONDITION IS FORECAST FOR 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DAY 2. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EWD TO 
124W AND WILL TURN KIKO MORE WWD. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SWLY OVER 
EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE REGION AS A NEW TROUGH APPROACHES. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 KIKO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A 
DEPRESSION AND START MOVING MORE WNW. STRONG NE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA N OF 26N E OF 120W AS WELL AS N WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

FOR DAY 2 A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG 120W WILL DOMINATE THE 
REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOOK FOR INCREASING N WINDS THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE LATER DAY 2. KIKO BECOMES 
A REMNANT LOW WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WNW. 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS AND NE WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC AREA N OF 
12N W OF 115W DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT..POSSIBLY NE WINDS 15 TO 
20 KT LINGER FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 135W. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT.

$$
RRG