000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 19.5N 107.8W OR ABOUT 130 NM WSW OF CABO 
CORRIENTES AND 230 NM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NNW 3 KT 
AT 2100 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT WITH 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB. INTERESTS ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF KIKO. KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY 
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...7N78W 13N95W 
10N105W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE POINT 14N93.4W.

...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE 
COVERING MOST OF THE EAST PACIFIC N OF 10N W OF 110W. THE DRY AIR 
EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. 
KIKO...AND MAY BE A FACTOR IN ITS WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
THERE ARE MINOR FLARE-UPS IN CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 110W
BUT IN GENERAL THE ENTIRE BASIN W OF 110W IS DEVOID OF DEEP MOISTURE 
AND CONVECTION. A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE COAST OF 
GUATEMALA TO NEAR 9N120W. QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS ARE LESS THAN 15 KT S 
OF 24N E OF 120W EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF KIKO AND WITHIN 300 NM OF 
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA. BUT TO THE NORTH...GALE FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ARE GENERATING 
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
BACKGROUND SWELLS DUE TO FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF 20N W OF 
120W AND SWELLS GENERATED BY T.S. KIKO HAVE COMBINED TOGETHER TO 
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FT...DESCRIBED IN THE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...ROUGHLY N OF 9N W OF 105W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE IMMEDIATE 
VICINITY OF KIKO. THE FIRST MAJOR WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STRONG HIGH 
PRES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED.

$$
LL