000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 19.3N 107.4W OR ABOUT 115 NM SW OF CABO 
CORRIENTES MOVING NNW 2 KT AT 1500 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 
KT GUSTS TO 60 KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB. 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 8N78W 13N95W 10N110W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 
115W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE 
COVERING MOST OF THE EAST PACIFIC N OF 10N W OF 110W. THE DRY AIR 
EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. 
KIKO...AND MAY BE A FACTOR IN ITS WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
THERE ARE MINOR FLARE-UPS IN CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 110W
BUT IN GENERAL THE ENTIRE BASIN W OF 110W IS DEVOID OF DEEP MOISTURE 
AND CONVECTION. A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE COAST OF 
GUATEMALA TO NEAR 9N120W. QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS ARE LESS THAN 15 KT S 
OF 24N E OF 120W EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF KIKO AND WITHIN 300 NM OF 
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA. BUT TO THE NORTH...GALE FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ARE GENERATING 
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
BACKGROUND SWELLS DUE TO FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF 20N W OF 
120W AND SWELLS GENERATED BY T.S. KIKO HAVE COMBINED TOGETHER TO 
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FT...DESCRIBED IN THE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...ROUGHLY N OF 9N W OF 105W. MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS 
ANALYZED TODAY WERE 18 FT NEAR 30N123W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE 
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF 
KIKO. THE FIRST MAJOR WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES 
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED...AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

$$
MUNDELL