000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 19.3N 107.3W OR ABOUT 130 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF CABO CORRIENTES AND 270 NM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS 
MEXICO MOVING NNW 5 KT AT 0900 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 
KT GUSTS TO 75 KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 
MB. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE CENTER AND ELSEWHERE NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 140 NM N SEMICIRCLE.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 9N78W 14N92W 10N108W 
10N123W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 7N79W 8N85W 
12N96W 11N99W 10N101W AND FROM 11N104W TO 10N109W TO 9N116W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N129W 10N134W AND 9N135W.

CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE EL SALVADOR COAST CENTERED 
NEAR 13N90W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG CENTERED 50 NM SW OF 
HUIXTLA MEXICO NEAR 15N94W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG 135W CONTINUES TO BUILD NWD TONIGHT. 
AS IT DOES..A POLAR JET IS DIGGING SE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH 
MOVING E ALONG 110W. THE JET IS LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER 
NRN MEXICO TONIGHT SUPPORTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PRES FIELD 
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 135W IS 
CENTERED NEAR 30N AND RIDGES SE TO 25N120W. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT T.S. KIKO CONTINUES TO DRIFT NW AT 5 KT. THE ABOVE MID 
LEVEL PRES FIELD IS AFFECTING KIKO'S MOVEMENT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
HAS RE-ORIENTED ITSELF WITH A CENTER NEAR 36N130W AND RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING SSW. WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN 115W AND 130W HAS TIGHTENED AND NLY WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED TO 25 KT N OF 27N. ALONG WITH THE WINDS NLY SWELL HAS 
INCREASED TO 12 TO 14 FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME BETWEEN 8N AND 15N E OF 
105W TO 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER NRN 
MEXICO AS THE POLAR JET PLUNGES SE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE 
STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD TO ALONG 130W WITH IT'S CENTER 
MOVING TO NEAR 33N133W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 STRONG NLY 
WINDS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AS 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE HOLDS IT'S OWN. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NWLY 15 TO 20 KT BUT INTERESTS ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA COAST SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO KIKO. KIKO IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND CONTINUE MOVING NW. NE TRADE 
OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE FROM 12N TO 24N W OF 125W.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE TO THE CA COAST 
WHICH WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE MOVEMENT OF KIKO..POSSIBLY 
MOVING IT MORE WWD. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHOW 
UP W OF THE AREA AND WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW 
BY LATE DAY 2. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE S OVER MEXICO AND N CENTRAL BAJA WITH N WINDS INCREASING TO 
25 TO 30 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ.  THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND NE TRADES DECREASE TO MOSTLY 15 
TO 20 KT.  GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR 
DAY 3 IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS SWD OVER 
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. A GALE WARNING IS ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE 
ALL INTERESTS AROUND THE SRN PORTION OF BAJA SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF KIKO.

$$
RRG